Shentong Express (002468): Consolidating the foundation and waiting for force
Event: The company announced the business situation of the company’s courier service business in August 2019, and the company completed its courier business revenue in August18.
660,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.
89%; completed business volume 6.
7.5 billion votes, an increase of 55 in ten years.
57%; corresponding to single ticket income 2.
76 yuan, a decrease of 13 per year.
Business volume continued to grow rapidly, and revenue grew faster than the industry.
Driven by the continuous growth of the e-commerce industry and the improvement of the company’s service quality, the company’s business volume growth rate has maintained an average of more than 50% in the past three months, and the business volume growth rate in August was 55.
Although the single ticket 北京夜网 price can be reduced by at least 13.
48%, under the hedge of high-growth business volume, the operating income of express delivery business increased by 34.
89%, much higher than the industry 26.
24% growth rate.
As of August, the company’s business volume growth rate exceeded the industry growth for 14 consecutive months.
The express company’s market share increased, and the company performed well.
Although the express industry CR8 is generally stable, it remains at 81.
7%, but from the perspective of the four courier companies listed on A shares, the market share has steadily increased.
At present, the market share of the four A-share listed courier companies has been 44 from August 2018.
67% increased to 50.
47%, of which the company’s market share is from 10.
60% increased to 12.
73%, the industry is 杭州桑拿网 constantly strengthening.
Alibaba’s participation in Shentong strengthens its competitiveness.
With the strengthening of the relationship between Ali and the company, we believe that Shentong will be able to directly obtain the enhancement of its information technology and automation capabilities to reduce the cost of the main business; secondly, Ali will play a synergistic effect with Shentong to optimize the company’s business and management model.Realize the gradual upgrading of operations.
In the future, the company is expected to improve profitability under the leadership of Ali, continue to maintain high growth in business volume, and enhance market competitiveness.
Profit forecast: EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019/2020/2021.
77 yuan, PE is 19x, 16x, 13x respectively, maintaining the “buy” level.
Risk warning: The growth rate of e-commerce is rapidly expanding, the price war is intensifying, and the cost is increasing significantly.